It is humbling to listen to one’s market views from 18 months ago
Posted on: 06/30/2016
Chief Investment Officer at iSectors
What I got wrong:
- Stocks would have a good 2016.
- Utilities were overvalued and health care was undervalued.
- The Fed would increase interest rates mid-year 2015 and be at 1.50% for the Fed Funds rate by year-end 2016.
By mid-year 2015, we had changed our minds on most of these things.
What I got right:
- Oil prices would stay low for long and we would not see $100+ oil prices for awhile.
- US dollar would continue to be strong and thus dollar-impacted areas such as basic materials should be avoided.
- The Fed would raise rates slower than the market expected. Even though I was too aggressive on the interest rate rise path, economists and the Fed itself was more aggressive than I was.