Barron’s Laughable Cover Story on the Stock Market Outlook for 2016

By Chief Investment Officer, Chuck Self on December 14, 2015

Barron’s presented 10 “prominent” strategists’ views on the economy and 2016 market this last weekend (12/12/15). I laughed as I read the article this past weekend.

My takeaways are as follows:

  1. Every one of them expects the market to go higher next year.
  2. If the 2015 S&P 500 earnings come in around 2014’s $113/share instead of the $118/share cited in the article, the experts’ target of $123.50/share (+9%) is likely unobtainable.
  3. Every one of them believes 10 year yields will rise next year.
  4. The guy who is the closest to the Post-MPT model thinking, Tobias Levkovich, got 2 sentences in the article while others got paragraphs or even sections.

Given the madness of the Barron’s article, our [iSectors’] contrary view of overweighting bonds and underweighting stocks (especially consumer durables and basic materials) seems warranted!

Here is a pdf of the article – if you could not access the article (not a Barron’s subscriber).

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