It is humbling to listen to one’s market views from 18 months ago

On June 30, 2016

…when I talked to Benzinga, on their PreMarket Prep morning radio program in December, 2014.

What I got wrong:

  • Stocks would have a good 2016.
  • Utilities were overvalued and health care was undervalued.
  • The Fed would increase interest rates mid-year 2015 and be at 1.50% for the Fed Funds rate by year-end 2016.

By mid-year 2015, we had changed our minds on most of these things.

What I got right:

  • Oil prices would stay low for long and we would not see $100+ oil prices for awhile.
  • US dollar would continue to be strong and thus dollar-impacted areas such as basic materials should be avoided.
  • The Fed would raise rates slower than the market expected.  Even though I was too aggressive on the interest rate rise path, economists and the Fed itself was more aggressive than I was.

Let’s see what happens when I’m on Benzinga‘s PreMarket Prep morning radio show next week! Listen on July 8, 8:15a.m. Central. Come back here and comment on the discussion.

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